Showing posts with label GM. Show all posts
Showing posts with label GM. Show all posts

Wednesday, November 05, 2008

Worth Saving?

The news for the US automakers gets worse and worse. Sales dropped 30% in October and with the continuing crisis on Wall Street, lack of consumer credit, lots full of unwanted vehicles and an approaching tsunami of default auto loans, things don't look like they're getting better anytime soon.

Detroit is continuing to lobby Washington for bailout cash and although President-Elect Obama has offered assistance for the development of fuel efficient vehicles, those funds may be too late to save the industry today. So is it time to give up on the US Big 3 Automakers? Painful as that sounds it may be the best path since, even with large cash injections, Detroit cannot exist in it's current form. A glut of dealers, products no one wants to buy, bad loans and hugely complex and restrictive labor practices are not going to be fixed cheaply or fast and the clock is running out. Both publicly traded brands are currently worth less than their physical infrastructure.

I can envisage a scenario where Tata Motors (Mkt Cap: 81.52B) buys Ford (Mkt Cap: 4.73B) but a combined GM (Mkt Cap: 3.15B) and Chrysler looks to be best left on the curb to be picked over by the parts pullers.

Thursday, July 03, 2008

Doomed To Repeat

It was George Santayana in 1924 who coined the famous phrase "those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it." And like deja-vous the US auto industry is fulfilling the prophecy. Back in 1973 the OPEC oil embargo hit the US, gas prices rose about 70 cents a gallon & Detroit was stuck with dealer lots stuffed with V-8 gas guzzling monsters that no one wanted. Much hand wringing followed, with claims from the Big 3 that this could never have been anticipated & they were caught without any models that could appeal to the economy conscious consumer. The door was opened to the Japanese imports & the rest is history.

Fast foward to 2008, gas prices have been steadily trending upwards since 2004 to their current high of around $4 per gallon. Once again Detroit was caught off guard, stuck with dealer lots stuffed with V-8 gas guzzling monsters and no models to sell to the economy conscious consumer. And once again the Big 3 are hand wringing with the usual "no one could have predicted this" excuses.

What are they teaching in MBA class these days anyway?